Friday, December 9, 2016

Canada October 2016 & November Preview



New Kids On The Block

Despite the seasonal sales dip on the Fall, Canada's EV market continues to far outpace previous years, 972 units were registered in October, up 52% YoY, pulling the EV Share to a record 0.52% (And over 0.73% in September), with the EV Market set to end the year at some 9.000 10.000 10.500 units by year end.

Looking at individual performances, the local favorite Chevrolet Volt was once again the best seller of the month, with 372 units, something that has been doing since this year started. Will it be able to improve the two year streak (2011-2013) of the First Generation Volt?

November spoiler alert: The Volt reached 316 units last month, so it seems that the winning streak will increase to 11 consecutive wins.

The other significant model with available November numbers is the Nissan Leaf, with 83 units, down 44% YoY.

Looking at the rest of the models, the main news were the warm welcome of the Tesla Model X, with 137 units delivered in October and allowing it to be the runner-up that month, while another SUV improved its personal best in the same period, with the Porsche Cayenne registering 47 units, allowing it to surpass the BMW X5 PHEV and reach #9.

Two important models (In each class) have appeared in October, with GM registering its first three Bolt units, while BMW registered its first 740e barge sedan.

The Chevrolet will be a strong contender for a podium position in the 2017 EV ranking, running neck-to-neck with its Volt relative and the Tesla siblings. 

As for the 740e, it will be a hard competitor to beat in the 2017 Luxury full-size sedan class. Sure, Porsche will have a strong new 2nd Gen Panamera running, with superior looks and specs, yes, Mercedes will also have an upgraded S550e, but the truth is that, of all the three brands, BMW is the only actually pushing sales of their plug-ins.

After letting escape the 2015 manufacturers title to Tesla, Chevrolet (33% share) will be the 2016 trophy bearer, followed by Tesla (23%) and Nissan (14%).

PlCanadaOct.YTD%
1Chevrolet Volt3372.88132
2Tesla Model S 761.27014
3Nissan Leaf1321.21714
4Tesla Model X1377649
5
6
7
8
9
Kia Soul EV 
Volvo XC90 T8
Audi A3 e-Tron
BMW i3
P. Cayenne Plug-In
72
45
16
29
47
581
436
270
263
238
7
5
3
3
3
10
11
BMW X5 40e
Ford C-Max Ener.  e)
18
15
218
205
2
2
12BMW i8 91402
13Ford Focus Electric101081
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
24
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Ford Fusion Ener. e)
Chevrolet Spark EV
BMW 330e
P. Panamera Plug-In
Cadillac ELR
Mercedes S550e
Smart Fortwo ED
Renault Twizy
Chevrolet Bolt
BMW 740e
Porsche 918
5
1
3
10
2
3
1


3
1
78
70
46
25
24
13
8
6
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

TOTAL9728.870100

Source: Green Car Reports

Thursday, December 8, 2016

France November 2016

Image result for Hyundai Ioniq Electric in France


Hyundai Ioniq lands with a bang

The French EV market had some 3.000 registrations last month, down 20% YoY, but despite this stumble, YTd numbers are up 29%, with the EV Share stable at 1.7%, a significant departure from the 1.41% of 2015.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the surprise was the Fifth Place of the Kia Soul EV, with 92 units, immediatly followed by the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, that in its first full sales month, reached 87 units, a good sign for future performances.

Elsewhere, despite remaining in the leadership, the Renault Zoe registrations were off by 38%, it seems the 40 kWh version hasn't arrived yet, which explains this low result

PlModelSales  
1Renault Zoe *547
2Renault Kangoo ZE233
3Nissan Leaf232
4BMW i3117
5Kia Soul EV92


Looking at the YTD ranking, there weren't that many changes, with the podium positions a
defined for a long time, as are the Best Selling PHEV (VW Golf GTE) and Rookie of the Year (Volvo XC90 T8), the only places on the Top 10 open to discussion for December is the #7, can the Soul EV outrun Bolloré, and the #9 and #10 posiitons, with three models fighting for a Top 10 spot. My bet is Model S in #9, then XC90 in #10 and C-Zero in #11.

The most significant changes were the Nissan e-NV200/Evalia rising to #16, the VW e-Up! (64 registrations, new personal record) jumping to #26, while three newcomers are making themselves noticed, with the #30 Mercedes GLC350e (63 units last month), #32 Hyundai Ioniq Electric and #35 Tesla Model X already showing up on the radar.

In the brands ranking, Renault (41%) continues to be the Master In Command, with 2016 being its fifth consecutive year in the lead, followed at a distance by Nissan (13%) and BMW (9%).

Finally, the breakdown between BEV's and PHEV's remains stable regarding last year, with PHEV's at 18%, the same result as last year.

Pl
France
Nov.
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Renault Zoe *
547
9.739
32
1
2
Nissan Leaf 
232
3.573
12
3
3
Renault Kangoo ZE 
233
2.345
8
2
4
BMW i3 
117
1.212
4
8
5
Peugeot iOn
72
1.101
4
9
6
Volkswagen Golf GTE
43
1.015
3
4
7
Bolloré Blue Car
1
942
3
5
8
Kia Soul EV
92
903
3
13
9
10
11
12
Volvo XC90 T8
Tesla Model S
Citröen C-Zero
Audi A3 e-Tron
34
29
47
28
693
673
652
597
2
2
2
2
N/A
10
15
6
13
BMW X5 40e
30
569
2
20
14
Renault Twizy e)
30
476
2
11
15
16
17
Citröen e-Mehari
Nissan e-NV200/Evalia **
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
5
66
38
474
454
453
2
1
1
N/A
16
N/A
18
19
Goupil
Porsche Cayenne PHEV
62
48
441
429
1
1
14
12
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Volkswagen Passat GTE
Peugeot Partner EV 
BMW 330e
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Citröen Berlingo EV
Mercedes C350e
Volkswagen e-Up!
Bolloré Blue Summer
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Kia Optima PHEV
Mercedes GLC350e 
Mercedes GLE500e
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Volkswagen e-Golf
Tesla Model X
Others
19
24
31
24
34
12
64

16
5
63
9
87
8
5
19
16
425
387
294
272
229
223
194
189
167
162
139
108
93
91
90
81
689
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
19
21
N/A
7
23
27
18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
31
N/A
30
22
26

TOTAL
2.190
30.574

* - 24 LCV included
** - 41 LCV included



Sources: Avere France

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Norway November 2016


Image result for 2016 bmw i3 in norway

 BMW i3 goes ballistic

There were 4.358 new plug-ins sold in Norway last month, up 40% YoY, the November passenger car market share reached 32.5%, pulling the YTD EV Share close to 30%.

The BMW grabbed the headlines with a jaw-dropping score of 1.014 units, being only the second plug-in model to reach four digits in one month (The other one was the Tesla Model S, with 1.493 units in March '14 and then twelve months later, with 1.140 deliveries).

To have an idea on the size of the surge, the i3 delivered in one month the same number of units it had sold in the first six months of the year...

Speaking of the remaining best selling models, the #2 Outlander PHEV (387 units) has confirmed  itself as a sure value, the same can be said about the #3 VW Golf GTE (378), while in Fourth we have a surprise, with the promising Hyundai Ioniq Electric delivering 282 units in its first real sales month, drying up its hybrid sibling sales, which registered only 39 units.

In fact, this is a Thing now in Norway, with several plug-in models swallowing their ICE relatives sales, like it was the case of the aforementioned Ioniq, but also the BMW 2-Series Act. Tourer (236 units for the PHEV version in November, 14 for the ICE versions), Mercedes B-Class (202 BEV's, 30 ICE's), Audi A3 (221; 49) or the Mitsubishi Outlander (387; 19), just to name a few. When will we see this mirrored elsewhere? 2020? 2021?

But we digress, back to the November Best Sellers, in Fifth Place we have the VW e-Golf with 244 units, its worst score in over two years, it seems buyers are waiting for the improved range 2017 e-Golf. Or is it for the 40 kWh Renault Zoe? Opel Ampera-e? Tesla Model 3?

One thing is for sure, all these models have four-digit-long waiting lists, with rumors that the Tesla has over 10.000 (!) reservations, so during the next two years we should see Norway reach 50% market share, if 2017 seems too early, 2018 and the boatloads of Model 3 arriving to Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, etc, should allow EV's to become the majority in sales, with the small detail that real world WLTP CO2 emissions should kick in around this same time, making ICE cars even more expensive.


PlModelSales  
1BMW i31.014
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV387
3Volkswagen Golf GTE378
4Hyundai Ioniq Electric
282
5Volkswagen e-Golf 244


Looking at the year-to-date ranking, if the first two positions seem already destined, with the Outlander PHEV preparing to be the first plug-in hybrid to wear the Best Seller jersey in Norway, the Third Spot is still open to discussion, with November bringing another change, with the VW Golf GTE and Nissan Leaf changing positions once again, this time to the advantage of the German (hot) hatch, recovering the Third Place, with both models separated by 127 units, the VW product is the favorite for the Bronze Medal, but it still has to keep an eye on the oldtimer, just to make sure it doesn't pull out some last minute trick and spoils the party.

The Audi A3 e-Tron climbed to #7, switching positions with the Tesla Model S, which is selling half of what it did in previous years, is the Californian car becoming tired in Norway? Unfavorable exchange rates? Or is it just a case of internal competition, as the fresh Tesla Model X is now the hippest thing on the EV block? The 122 deliveries of the SUV-Minivan-Sports Car seem to point that way, allowing it to climb to #14 on the plug-in ranking, while at the same time surpassing the BMW X5 PHEV and becoming the  best selling Luxury SUV in this ranking. Not bad for a model that only arrived six months ago.

By the way, there will be some fiscal changes for 2017, which will have no impact on BEV's, but large PHEV's will become cheaper, so expect Luxury SUV's to become a hot topic next year (Volvo XC90, here's your chance to beat the Model X), while large ICE vehicles, like the VW Caravelle, will become more expensive (Expect large/medium plug-in SUV's and the Nissan Evalia to benefit from this).

In the second half of the chart, the recently arrived Hyundai Ioniq Electric is jumping positions, it is now #22, still trying to reach a Top 20 place by year end.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (29%, down 1%) is sure to add another Manufacturers trophy (The third in a row), followed from a far by the new Second Placed BMW (14%, up 2%), and then Mitsubishi (12%, down 1%) and Nissan (11%).

Looking at Fuel Cell numbers, Hyundai registered three FCEV's last month, with the Korean increasing the lead in the YTD count to six units (13 Hyundai vs 7 Toyota), despite the Mirai being a more recent product and have better specs.  

PlNorwayNov.YTD%'15Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV3874.877124
2Volkswagen e-Golf2444.480111
3Volkswagen Golf GTE3784.032106
4Nissan Leaf2383.90593
5BMW i31.0143.53385
6
7
8
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Audi A3 e-Tron
Tesla Model S
173
221
48
2.393
1.914
1.788
6
5
4
20
7
2
9Renault Zoe1001.74348
10Mercedes B250e2021.727410
11
12
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Kia Soul EV
236
95
1.240
1.122
3
3
N/A
11
13
Volkswagen e-Up!
1281.03729
14
15
16
Tesla Model X
Mercedes C350e
BMW X5 40e
122
62
53
1.005
967
938
2
2
2
N/A
22
19
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Volvo V60 Plug-In
Volvo XC90 T8
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia *
Mercedes GLC350e
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Peugeot iOn
BMW 330e
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citröen C-Zero
Mercedes GLE500e
Peugeot Partner EV
Renault Kangoo ZE
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Renault Twizy
Ford Focus Electric
BMW i8
Smart Fortwo ED
Citröen Berlingo EV
Others
68
14
50
74
35
282
28
17
26
12
3
16
9
3
5
1


9
5
708
686
683
622
367
353
328
290
268
208
158
135
127
104
71
47
35
33
29
42
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
N/A
13
N/A
26
16
27
18
17
24
29
21
25
15
23


TOTAL4.35841.995100

* - 24 Pass + 26 Lcv

Source: elbil.no; ofvas.no

Hat tip to Terje for the help on the 2017 changes!

Models breakdown by Fuel Source


PlModelSales  
1BMW i31.014
2Toyota RAV4513
3Volkswagen Tiguan406
4Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV387
5
6
7
8
9
10
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Skoda Octavia
Toyota Auris
Toyota Yaris
Volkswagen Golf ICE
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
378
348
320
311
283
282

With some 30% share, plug-ins performance in the general ranking is more relevant than ever, besides the obvious result of the BMW i3, absolute leader in November, of the 905 units sold by the Best Seller VW Golf last month, only 283, or 31%, didn't had a plug.

Splitting models by fuel source, November was the Third consecutive time that a BEV was the Best Seller, following on the Tesla Model X leadership in September, the BMW i3 was #1 in the last two months, and by the way, all units delivered were 100% electric in these last two months.

In the following positions we have three SUV's, all with different powertrains, the #2 RAV4 is a regular hybrid, the #3 Tiguan is pure ICE (When will VW release the GTE version?), while the #4 Outlander PHEV is plug-in hybrid. This is like saying that customers want SUV's, no matter how they get their propulsion...

The remaining plug-ins in the Top 10 are the VW Golf GTE, #6 with 378 units and the recently arrived Hyundai Ioniq Electric, showing up at #10, with 282 units.